Hi Guys,
We have the usual tech run through below. Notably the Swiss team have brought forward their US$ top this week. Several pairs have signaled that the US$ cyclical bull appears to have topped or very close to topping as a basket. Risk remains within a distribution at present and its clear that technical breadth is not hugely positive here, across all risk. The team to appear to be adjusting their model though. Banking sector as one example, their deep retrace is now more shallow than it was. I would estimate that the US$ weakening theme is a new fresh tailwind to US equities and therefore a more shallow pull back is now baked in. And conversely a head wind to euro equities. (Its worth mentioning that a weakening US$ would be hugely beneficial for the Hangseng index and UAE index and other US$ peg related markets that are also cyclical exporters. Their charts have started to move note).
Without delay here the report:
And here Fitzpatrick:
Sticking to his US$ guns but with accepting a tactical pull back. USDSGD 1.38 level target which is meaningful move off the highs! Copper enough said. If you have a position in copper equities i would retain in spite of the strong run.
And here is miesels sticking with the cyclical bull, tactical pull back theme :
And here SC
Tactical trade eurusd 1.04 target.
I have fresh new highs on my book thanks to the yellow metal. Inflation expectations in the US and overseas (Sharply rising Euro inflation last week on the macro side), assisting. Watch Chinese inflation!
Its a marathon not a sprint of course.
With that in mind all the best and see you next week.
Rich