Hi guys, we have this continuation of tactical weakness in risk here as the fast moves from earlier in the year continue to be digested. There is nothing as yet in my tech book to see this as anything more than a consolidation of the prior moves. The US$ remains unresolved though more evidence is coming through via several pairs that the US$ has more strength to come. As commented on the forum a nice pattern coming through on the EurGbp pair which needs resolution shortly.
I’m traveling once again so I have to cut this short and pick up comments on the forum.
Here the reports:
Here Fitzpatrick at Citi:
Here UBS with their ground up view of US equities:
And here LC
To quickly attempt to piece the macro with the tech flow: We are starting to see a mild weakening of the global re-inflation case. The Trump fiscal promises are taking longer to come through than expected. If the reflation case is going to keep moving forward, with all the asset implications that fall out of that trend, policy action needs to come through soon or else the markets will respond accordingly and the tech will likely start to reflect this weakening case. Lets see. For now neither the macro or tech is sufficiently weak to endanger the early summer bull market continuation so the medium case remains unchanged albeit with risk raised a little.
All the best
Rich