Welcome to the first post for the 2016 year and I can’t remember starting a year to so much volatility and uncertainty.
There is so much to comment on inside the following outlook but this to come. Without delay I want to bring you the technical “Swiss teams” outlook for 2016 and beyond which is a master piece in technical analysis.
As a general observation regarding these technical commentaries, as we look back on 2015, we can see the works of Goldmans, CitiBank and UB have generally been ahead of price and this therefore deserves much praise.
Implementation within your trading own trading plan is of course as complicated sometimes as is the production the technical insights themselves but this application can only be our challenge and given time and decent record keeping becomes clearer.
This, by the way, is the forth anniversary year for Capitalsynthesis. As I look down the list of subscribers it appears to be an industry whos who list. It is mainly a professional subscribers list nowadays.
Back to 2016 it appears likely to be a pivotal year for world markets. I echo the team’s view that we have a situation here and threat of a “meltdown scenario” vs their base case. Looking ahead to further weakness it is very likely that in the year ahead it is likely that many world equity indexes will hit the same levels were at back in 1996. Policy makers need to take heed of this weakness as do the proponents of perpetual house price gains vs all other asset classes.
Without further delay here the 2016 Technical Outlook:
And here a comment a few days ago from Fitzpatrick:
And finally it appears the gold bull is in 2016 about to resume. Its worth noting that this bear market is almost exactly the equal (value wise) to the falls gold saw during her 194 to 1976 bear market within her giant bull market. Duration, time wise, has been longer but really only in US$ is this the case.
Here Nautilus’s 2016 Technical Outlook
Here a technical update from the guys at Goldmans in a pre xmas released 2015 retrospective & 2016 outlook:
I would note the views on the flat yield curve. Often a pre cursor of bear markets. I would also note the optimism, which was consensus, for an out performance Euro Stoxx. Remember from failed moves come fast moves, as we see! Note also the ten year target of 2.09%. That is far from consensus or at least was a week ago but a forecast i totally agree with which feeds directly into the commercial property reits borrowing costs and therefore supports a higher valuation than at present. Note also the breakout USD vs SGD, which wedge wise is confirmed and horizontal breakout just about confirmed. Place this in the context of the Swiss comments re “Where We could Be Wrong” and the para..
“The obvious trigger on the macro side for an earlier market break down scenario would be a new broad based breakout of the US dollar against the Asian/EM block and also versus the commodity block”.
These recent price moves are hugely concerning on the near term for equities, commodities alike. We need to see the US$ back away from these potential breakouts. If we don’t we have immediate deflationary trouble ahead in an already very weak technical market.
Much more to come and I’ll update this post later today I hope. Looking forward to the 2016 year ahead.
All the best guys.
Rich