Price action has been steady with no fireworks, only oil aside.
Its an interesting report again this week from the guys. The correction from over sold levels across risk has occurred more powerfully and rapidly than the Swiss team expected. They have therefore shifted their timing model forward reading the recent moves as an impulsive correction from oversold levels and nothing more. Their 2000 level on the sp500 was the lower of their targets which they take as a level to take profits from. They expect the bear market to resume within the next 10 sessions or so. They are slightly more tactically bullish euro equities raising their “overshoot” target is 3200 stoxx 50. Oil close to their target of 37 to 40 and a wave 5 still to come. Too early to get short but nothing in the price action or instruments correlations alters their base case of lower lows in the coming months to which i must agree although im slightly more bullish post an immediate shallow retrace.
Macro wise the ECB stands as the elephant in the room in the room this week. If they disappoint again their will be blood.
Here the swiss team’s latest comments:
And here GS’s
And here Fitzpatrick:
Fitzpatrick looking for 2080.. and i tend to think he might get this target rolling over most bears prior to resumption of the trend downwards.
And here MS with their usual FX report. (All eyes to Draghi)
1.07 eurusd, yes probably if Draghi delivers. Tactically, will it simply sustain an extension of the bear market corrective rally for a little longer? yes, probably. But medium term I don’t believe it will save risk from the renewal of the correction due.
On the personal front no news yet but DDay is close.
All the best
Rich