Its all about the US$, rates and US equity indexes. The dollar has broken out but needs to take a breath, rates have bounced considerably higher on the short end and following on from last week we have weakness in US equities but price has failed, as yet, to “break” key supports. We have a stand off here caught in a narrow range here for US equities between breaking supports and breaking resistances. The edge remains with those short, for now, from a price momentum perspective.
Here the Swiss team’s latest comments: (please note they are traveling next week and therefore the next update from them will be the 2nd of November).
The transports have bounced thus far today but remain in a congested area of the chart where price has bounced around and really done nothing for 6 months now. The russel2000 scored excellent momentum to the downside. She has bounced off supports here today but we have to suspect the move is about to roll over.
Here Fitzpatrick with a great line “Buy Dollars, Wear Diamonds”
And here GS with their CTM report:
Not so many high conviction trades from GS. Nice to see a conviction 2 on copper from the team as first time in a while.
I’m watching US equity prices very carefully here as its touch and go whether this tactical bear scores a hit here. International equities look better given the US$ strength and various carries long foreign equities with carry SGD to Euro to GBP look like they have much to run.
Ill update this as a v2 in the next 24hrs or so.
Here Louis capital:
And here a tech report from bloomberg.. and its actually not bad though not great either.
Cheers Rich