We have drifted in to August and so holiday season is upon us. The swiss team have broken for holidays until later in the month but the usual suspects from GS and Citi are still at work. Across risk there is not a lot of new price evidence here other than new highs in bullion, which is telling, and a few commodity trading cos, again telling in my view. US equities wise we have seen some weakness particularly the transports but conversely the major indexes eg sp500, Russel and Dow continue to display strength. The US tech sector an out performer, transports continues to be the weakest (which is surprising given recent materials strength). US banking continues to be weak and has not broken out of her downtrend. European equities remain firmly in their down trends. The Dax30 monetarily moved above the 10400 area intra day but couldn’t hold the level and back down she went. Euro banks are displaying great weakness again with new lows for some Italian banks. Asian banks the global banking recent performers with better loan impairment coming through which potentially further shows the base is firmly in for Asian indexes and economic data.
On the policy front the ECB and BOJ disappointing the BOE exceeding expectations. The stakes couldn’t be higher for both regions. More policy action appears likely for both in September.
So here Fitzpatrick picking up on the recent oil and commodity moves again. We have to acknowledge that he’s been pretty accurate with his general technical road map.
38 level or thereabout for wti. We bounced off 39 yesterday. I’d like to see some clear price rejection of this area before taking longs. He maintains his short euro theme which ties nicely into GS’s views below.
Here GS:
From last week first:
And here current:
Here UBS US equities maintaining their bullish stance
If Apple can breakout it would be meaningful for tech indexes. Amazon, Google, Ebay, Facebook are all either in breakout or with nicely intact bull trends. If Apple, the recent laggard can join, the index is off to significant new highs.
I hope you are enjoying your holidays.
Rich